tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.comments2024-03-07T06:13:15.953+00:00Variable VariabilityVictor Venemahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comBlogger2023125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-22109652819533994322022-08-15T21:10:07.564+01:002022-08-15T21:10:07.564+01:00"You missed the entire point of the whole whi..."You missed the entire point of the whole whitewash paint bias theory."<br /><br />No I responded to it: "The mitigation skeptics somehow thought that the effect would go into the other direction. That the bad paints used in the past would be a cooling bias, rather than a warming bias. Something with infra-red albedo. Although most materials used have about the same infra-red albedo and the infra-red radiation fluxes are much smaller than the solar fluxes."<br /><br />"In fact, Watts measured a temperature difference of between 0.3 and 0.8 F, and I assume the whitewashed box was the cooler one, at least in the report and graph that I saw."<br /><br />Do you have a source for that claim? (And for all the other unsourced claims?) The data I have seen from Watts showed the opposite: "I have not seen any data from this experiment beyond a plot with one day of temperatures, which was a day one month after the start, showing no clear differences between the Stevenson screens. They were all up to 1°C warmer than the modern ventilated automatic weather station when the sun was shining. (That the most modern ventilated measurement had a cool bias was not emphasized in the article, as you can imagine.)"<br /><br />"More study is definitely needed on this phenomenon."<br /><br />Is that you, Pielke Sr.? More homework for others? The study that needs to be done, if white wash were used, is the one Anthony Watts did. Do you think he is a traitor and would not report on it while he could score points for the MAGA movement? Or is the obvious reason he dropped the simple project that the results were not politically convenient? <br /><br />The internet suggests that cooling paints mainly cools by having a high albedo (being very "white") not only for visible light, but also reflecting infra-red and UV well.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-35396624509911468832022-08-15T18:52:41.991+01:002022-08-15T18:52:41.991+01:00You missed the entire point of the whole whitewash...You missed the entire point of the whole whitewash paint bias theory. The point is that whitewash paint - the calcium carbonate has a higher infrared emissivity than white latex paint which presumably has a lot of titanium dioxide in it. Thus the surface is constantly emitting more IR blackbody radiation to the surroundings. There are modern "cooling" paints which also incorporate calcium carbonate or other similar materials which make the object cooler by increasing the IR blackbody radiation which is claimed to cool surfaces by several degrees F. So the reasoning is that if all temperature boxes pre-1979 were painted with calcium carbonate, then the boxes would have tended to run cooler and the thermometers inside would also be a bit cooler. In fact, Watts measured a temperature difference of between 0.3 and 0.8 F, and I assume the whitewashed box was the cooler one, at least in the report and graph that I saw. I have not found anyone else who raised this question. I recently came up with similar reasoning after reading about these new cooling paint technologies. More study is definitely needed on this phenomenon. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-43302833652928044272022-08-15T18:44:41.807+01:002022-08-15T18:44:41.807+01:00There are other reasons to favor particular mitiga...There are other reasons to favor particular mitigation measures. For example, we know that fossil fuels are limited and will run out someday. Nuclear and solar power will preserve oil and natural gas reserves, and that by itself is a compelling reason to switch to alternatives.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-73129768215846306272022-08-04T13:19:26.963+01:002022-08-04T13:19:26.963+01:00I am not so good with Fahrenheit, but that is almo...I am not so good with Fahrenheit, but that is almost a degree Celsius per century right? That is climatologically significant. When I computed it last time I was surprised, like now, at how small the uncertainty is. The temperature of such a small piece of land like America is highly variable, but the noise in the difference is surprisingly small.<br /><br />That makes a blog post.<br /><br />Your unit "per decade" could be more intuitive as it could be something only seen near the end of the series: A good explanation could be that statistical homogenization cannot improve the trend estimates much near the edges because there is not much data after any breaks to detect them. So near the edges the trend in homogenized data is likely more like the raw data than like the actual climatic trend. I am not aware of a paper showing this. This result suggests that writing such a paper would be valuable. Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-10889313140953005802022-08-02T19:42:26.302+01:002022-08-02T19:42:26.302+01:00I took the data from the link in Nick's post, ...I took the data from the link in Nick's post, subtracted USCRN-ClimDiv for 2005-present, and calculated trend and trend confidence to get 0.16 F/decade 0.04 F/decade 2 sigma as the trend difference.<br /><br />If I've done this correctly and USCRN is assumed "right" it suggests the ClimDiv series is trending cold.Mark Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-86400765401791217142022-08-02T09:59:09.970+01:002022-08-02T09:59:09.970+01:00The Coppa experimental results are nice.The Coppa experimental results are nice.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-45525462376650353382022-07-31T12:19:37.932+01:002022-07-31T12:19:37.932+01:00That would be a strong argument for normal people....That would be a strong argument for normal people. While writing the post I had thought of this comparison and had wanted to revisit. Last time I looked, a few years ago, you could already see this slightly faster warming of USCRN. It starts to become scientifically interesting.<br /><br />P.S. I did not publish your second comment. I do not like linking to misinformation without debunking it. But thanks for the heads up. Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-73511780911085671732022-07-31T02:55:27.490+01:002022-07-31T02:55:27.490+01:00I think the most convincing refutation is that Cli...I think the most convincing refutation is that ClimDiv, made up of these "corrupted" stations, and USCRN, purpose-built and which most people accept as being well sited, give identical results<br />https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/national-temperature-index/time-series/anom-tavg/12/12<br />Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-80864070940640492472022-07-30T20:24:05.305+01:002022-07-30T20:24:05.305+01:00I remember back around 2005 when RP Sr. was first ...I remember back around 2005 when RP Sr. was first peddling this stuff I suggested to him that he run a few experiments along these lines to see if there was a significant effect. He declined, saying he lacked funding. It would have been a very modest grant proposal, and at the the time he was still CO state climatologist and hadn't entirely wrecked his reputation. <br /><br />I say not entirely since there was an incident a couple years prior where he had been appointed chair of a committee (maybe an NAS subcommittee, but I'm not sure) tasked with issuing a report on something closely related and refused to let the report get filed even though he was the only dissenter. Ultimately they simply appointed another chair, leading to much squawkage from RP Sr. IIRC it's why he started his blog. But perhaps this bizarre episode was some value of entirely, at least as regards getting grants to test his wacky ideas. Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-25689518293276060762022-07-29T22:11:02.524+01:002022-07-29T22:11:02.524+01:00Fair enough, although I do find that an odd choice...Fair enough, although I do find that an odd choice, since the mean doesn't fit with the rest of the five number summary. <br /><br />Enjoyed the discussion -- need to say that again.<br />Leedeanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08279929296814513986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-44492216116438753362022-07-29T18:18:09.933+01:002022-07-29T18:18:09.933+01:00The median is more traditional, but I have seen bo...The median is more traditional, but I have seen both. I have even made <a href="https://codeberg.org/Venema/Multitest_figures/src/branch/master/figures/figure_multitest12_blackwhite_long_title_panel_01_fig2a.pdf" rel="nofollow">boxplots</a> with both the mean (cross) and the median (line) as the mean is a pretty important number.<br /><br />For this dataset I do not expect much differences between mean and median. When the authors discus the boxplot they mention these average differences, so I have assumed that is what they computed and plotted.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-47366288876176455572022-07-29T17:41:44.041+01:002022-07-29T17:41:44.041+01:00Interesting discussion. One point/question:
"...Interesting discussion. One point/question:<br /><br />"The thick part of the box plots spans 50% of all observed temperature differences, the horizontal bar inside it the mean temperature difference."<br /><br />Unless these are non-standard boxplots the horizontal bar represents the MEDIAN temp diff, not the mean, no?deanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08279929296814513986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-1585325000452174922022-06-24T12:21:52.832+01:002022-06-24T12:21:52.832+01:00That you held a flawed opinion, based on reading c...That you held a flawed opinion, based on reading culture war blogs rather than scientific articles, for a long time does not make it less flawed. We do have data. You may not like it, but it is there and as scientists we study how reliable this data is and whether the uncertainties are sufficient to be able to draw a specific conclusion from them.<br />All stations are affected by inhomogeneities, also rural stations. So your suggestion to use rural stations and ignore their inhomogeneities is not reliable. Did you ever look at the scientific articles estimating global warming from rural data? The idea that the only problem worth caring about is the increase of urbanization is a myth from culture war blogs and billionaire funded "think tanks" and in no way supported by the evidence.<br />Uncertainties are always discussed in science. <a href="http://variable-variability.blogspot.com/2012/01/new-article-benchmarking-homogenization.html" rel="nofollow">Here is an article of mine on the topic.</a>Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-76268157506073264682022-06-23T08:49:08.124+01:002022-06-23T08:49:08.124+01:00I have long thought that the whole methodology of ...I have long thought that the whole methodology of constructing averages, with 'homogenization', across wildly varying dataset input is deeply flawed. One basic objection is that if you don't have data, then you don't have it. There is no valid way to magic it into existence by averaging or any other process. So data from the past that isn't there, just isn't there. This is even worse in modern datasets where all the data for an area is missing for a period because the instruments were 'offline' and the data is infilled by averaging the surrounding stations (The Australian BoM does a lot of this).<br />IMHO, the only intellectually valid approach for determining shifts in the climate is to look the historical record for stations that are rural, have remained unaffected by UHI and have solid record keeping going back through decades. That gives a reliable sample of trend that can then by unified using Bayesian techniques.<br />All averaging and homogenization currently in use is so vulnerable to bias confirmation as to be entirely meaningless, and then you have the increase in standard error that homogenization brings. That is *never* discussed.Harry Davidsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-37617937950131508022022-04-27T21:16:07.060+01:002022-04-27T21:16:07.060+01:00Thanks. Even if I am hardly active on Twitter anym...Thanks. Even if I am hardly active on Twitter anymore, because of the accounts for the Open Science Feed and Grassroots Journals, I still regularly look and it is easy to get drawn in by the slow-motion train wreck. Just looking at the trending topics makes you despair about humanity and wonder why people are so dumb/terrible and before you know you clicked and watched ads.<br /><br />I wonder whether this in the end will limit the growth of Mastodon. It would be possible to create a micro-blogging system that looks more like Twitter, which still uses Activity Pub. That may be needed to get more people to switch and could coexist with a more quiet system like Mastodon. Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-74878205932103802292022-04-27T14:44:15.163+01:002022-04-27T14:44:15.163+01:00I enjoyed your article. Thank you for introducing ...I enjoyed your article. Thank you for introducing all the features of Mastodon. I joined but couldn't hold my interest because it is still so small. When you point to the many features I can now see a better use for it than just micro blogging. Thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-9664087476425916562021-10-24T12:47:51.040+01:002021-10-24T12:47:51.040+01:00When working on clouds I did study some Russian re...When working on clouds I did study some Russian research on turbulence. But I never had the idea to systematically search of Russian literature as well and not just for English language articles in the convenient Web of Science.<br /><br />We are making some progress and have started coding a first simple switchboard for scientific articles. Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-46561638369122911912021-10-24T06:23:27.386+01:002021-10-24T06:23:27.386+01:00Even in the clouds sciences I should probably have...Even in the clouds sciences I should probably have paid more attention to studies in other languages. One of our group members works on turbulence and droplets and found many worthwhile papers in Russian. I had never considered that and might have found some turbulent gems there as well.<br /><br />Quite right- one of the few perks of being on the right side in the Cold War was the money lavished on translation - there was always something new out of Pergamon.<br /><br /><br />THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-48164865741933753762020-05-01T17:07:37.068+01:002020-05-01T17:07:37.068+01:00Germany is down from 5000 cases per day to 1000 ca...Germany is down from 5000 cases per day to 1000 cases per day. Figure 4: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-04-30-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile<br /><br />With a testing capacity of 800k tests per week we are getting in the region where testing and quarantining people can replace of lot of the lockdown.<br /><br />The mandatory lockdown was never very strict in Germany, but the population is well educated and well informed (thanks Prof. Drosten) and did a lot (and did this early). <br /><br />It is relatively easy to stay at home as we have paid sick leave. We have universal health care, so that people who loose their job do not lose their insurance. <br /><br />Also just 0.6% people lost their jobs since February, most workers are on “short work”, they work less hours and the salary difference is compensated partially by the unemployment insurance and their employer. This way it is much easier to get back to work, no time consuming hiring and training.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-44157924659140603612020-04-24T11:56:13.601+01:002020-04-24T11:56:13.601+01:00Great Article. Very Clear. Thank youGreat Article. Very Clear. Thank youAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-36481444854725983732020-04-23T15:47:40.007+01:002020-04-23T15:47:40.007+01:00Eradication sounds very optimistic to me, but coul...<i>Eradication sounds very optimistic to me, but could be worth a try. That will not be easy even in splendid isolation and you will still need some goods from overseas and with that people who operate the transport. But if you add really good testing it should be possible to keep the case numbers really low and thus to make the testing and tracking really efficient.</i><br /><br />Ensuring that foreign crews of ships and planes are kept isolated should not be difficult. Ensuring that crews of Australian planes operating internationally are safe while overseas may be more difficult but should be possible - there are no Australian flagged ships operating internationally.<br /><br />At present (23 April) Australia has identified 6659 cases of which 5045 have recovered and 75 have died leaving 1539 current cases all of whom are in isolation. The current estimate of R is 0.78 and the only 0.15% of tests prove positive.<br /><br />The difficulty for eradication is, of course, the fact that many infected individuals are asymptomatic. The current plan is extensive testing with aggressive contact tracing (assisted by a voluntary phone app).Wombathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09741189551648572262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-85767009014500200292020-04-16T04:15:00.274+01:002020-04-16T04:15:00.274+01:00In Australia supermarkets have to keep the number ...In Australia supermarkets have to keep the number of people in their shop at a level which allows 4 sq metres per person. This often involves queuing to enter the shop. Most people allow two metres between them and the next person in the queue but some just don't get it and have to be told.<br />Wombathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09741189551648572262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-74627589904638951942020-04-15T13:47:05.923+01:002020-04-15T13:47:05.923+01:00One of my supermarkets in Bonn now also does this....One of my supermarkets in Bonn now also does this. Once they even had someone to disinfect the cards. Everyone how has to use a card as they are used to count the number of customers. I tend to go late, when it is quiet (but also much stuff is sold out), even then it can be hard to stay 2 meter away from people inside.<br /><br />If the queue is exactly in the wind direction, standing in line for an hour may pose some risk, otherwise I would expect that it is quite save. The droplets with the most virus, will also be heaviest ones that drop to the ground fastest. We do not have to get the transmission of the virus from one person to the next to zero, just below one. We are taking these precautions to protect others, for any individual the risk is low.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-22474586406248775642020-04-15T13:36:29.806+01:002020-04-15T13:36:29.806+01:00@Wombat. Eradication sounds very optimistic to me,...@Wombat. Eradication sounds very optimistic to me, but could be worth a try. That will not be easy even in splendid isolation and you will still need some goods from overseas and with that people who operate the transport. But if you add really good testing it should be possible to keep the case numbers really low and thus to make the testing and tracking really efficient.<br /><br />SARS was gone before the vaccine was ready, but they did not find any stumbling blocks. Developing a vaccine for a common cold is a lot of work for a product likely no one would buy because it is just a cold and just one of the viruses causing it. <br /><br />It is an unprecedented situation, so no prediction can be made with absolute confidence, but it is quite likely a vaccine will work. The virus does not attack the immune system itself like HIV or try to hide like Hepatitus. Any individual attempt can easily fail, but there are so many, that I do expect one of them will work. A much more likely worry is when it will be there, 12 to 18 months is a neck-breaking speed never seen before.<br /><br />By definition we do not know whether there is long-term immunity for a new virus. But there is a strong response by the immune system, which makes it likely it will. Many seem to confuse that after some years anti-bodies can often no longer being detected with that the immunity is gone, normally also then there is still immunity, just not as strong any more.<br /><br />There are people worrying about immunity because of cases where people were "re-infected". Likely these people were simply still healing and there were a few throat probes that gave negative results, but the virus was still in the lungs (possible already dead) and then gave positive results again later. That is likely just noise. See yesterday's <a href="https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript176.pdf" rel="nofollow">podcast with German virologist Drosten</a> in German. <br /><br />It is good to plan for any eventuality, and trying to eradicate the virus or keeping the number of cases really low would fit to such worst case scenarios, but these scenarios are not particularly likely. Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-66237612353317033152020-04-15T10:53:56.300+01:002020-04-15T10:53:56.300+01:00Here in the UK the supermarkets have brought in a ...Here in the UK the supermarkets have brought in a scheme where only a set number of shoppers are allowed in the store at a given time. The rest must queue outside. <br /><br />I tried to shop in the town centre today. Had I chosen to stay, I'd have been in a queue for an hour or so, whereas under normal circumstances I'd have been in and out of the shop in 10 minutes.<br /><br />I live in a fairly posh town where people are well behaved, so the people in the queues were maintaining a distance of 2 metres or more. But the received wisdom of the "safe" gap of 2 metres seems dubious to me - especially if you were downwind of a carrier. Are the supermarkets really making things safer by their policy?Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.com