tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post5418682509127295091..comments2024-03-07T06:13:15.953+00:00Comments on Variable Variability: Introduction to series on weather variability and extreme eventsVictor Venemahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-34891986616065938412013-12-02T16:49:46.586+00:002013-12-02T16:49:46.586+00:00Rachel, yes, I think I had observations in mind. I...Rachel, yes, I think I had observations in mind. It would also be valid for climate models. It is probably the mainstream opinion that precipitation variability is increasing. The "seems" comes from me, I am not that sure yet, because I am not sure whether the quality of the data is sufficient to detect such changes.<br /><br />Variability is not the same as extremes, but they are closely related. Extremes can change because the mean changes or because the variability around the mean is changing. That is the topic of the <a href="http://variable-variability.blogspot.de/2013/12/importance-changes-weather-variability-changes-extreme-weather.html" rel="nofollow">second post</a>.<br /><br />The studies on the variability of precipitation have mainly been performed for strong and severe precipitation and much less for rain rates that I would call extreme: rain rates that only occur once every ten years or longer. Because such extreme extremes are so rare, they are hard to study and it is even harder to study changes in such rare events. Especially if you consider that there is on average every 15 to 20 years a non-climatic change in typical observations. More on that in later posts. :-)Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-35696112544682182442013-12-02T16:28:21.607+00:002013-12-02T16:28:21.607+00:00It's fair to say that most of this is going ov...It's fair to say that most of this is going over my head, Victor :-)<br /><br />But I do have one question. When you say the "variability of precipitation seems to increase" are you referring to observations? And if so, is this the same as saying there are more extreme precipitation events than there used to be?Rachelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09129841408329015509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-92200937477983291152013-11-26T12:34:25.999+00:002013-11-26T12:34:25.999+00:00Yes, I would second Daneel's comment. I look f...Yes, I would second Daneel's comment. I look forward to the rest of this series.andrew adamshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17196332706764660436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-77818259889668170802013-11-25T23:21:08.703+00:002013-11-25T23:21:08.703+00:00Nice to hear there is some interest. The more scie...Nice to hear there is some interest. The more scientific posts are read a lot less. Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9093436161326155359.post-90689797348954705342013-11-25T18:59:33.201+00:002013-11-25T18:59:33.201+00:00Great. This is a very interstig and complex topic ...Great. This is a very interstig and complex topic and I'll be waiting your posts on the subject. <br />I've been interested in how climate change affects variability (if it even does) and as a non-expert it's very hard to understand the state of the literature when finding several papers with conflicting results.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07982409667756307764noreply@blogger.com