Tuesday, 6 November 2018

America, it is Tuesday the 6th of November: VOTE

Opinion polling is hard because one needs to sample all groups evenly.

Election polling is even harder because you need to predict turnout as well. With the low turnout in the US (2014: 37% of eligible voters; 2012+2016: 61%): TURNOUT IS EVERYTHING.

If all young people would vote Republicans would have nearly no seat in the House. That is how important turnout is. (Take your friends with you when you vote.)

One advantage election polling normally has is being able to correct for biases based on past data. With turnout being this unprecedented, this will not help this time. Normally polling errors are about 3%. This midterm election my guesstimate is 7% nationally, 15% locally.

In other words: polling is nearly useless this time.

Historical results are also useless. In a West Virginia district Trump won by over 40 points, Justice Democrat Richard Ojeda has a 50/50 chance.


A large confidence interval may not sound like much of a prediction, but it does matter: If you think you live in a save state or district: you are wrong, go out & vote. You may otherwise regret it on the day after the elections.

Let's talk about the issues

Trump wants to kill a bunch of poor people in the South of Mexico. Similar historical that only a few will arrive at the border in several weeks. The so-called left wing press does his bidding by spending hours on this non-issue. Wednesday this topic will again have the prominence it deserves: none.

What we should be talking about, what should determine our votes:
  1. Climate change denial and lack of action
  2. America global pariah by refusing to do its part
  3. Incompetent management of climate disasters leading to thousands additional Americans dying #TrumpsKatrina
  4. The Republican Death Panel on Capitol Hill, mostly stopped by McCain, but far from fully
  5. Trump is in court to take away protections for pre-existing conditions #barbaric 
  6. Medical bankruptcies #OnlyInAmerica
  7. The biggest funder of global terrorism bribing Trump #bonesaw
  8. An upcoming war with Iran to help Saudi Arabia 
  9. Help with the famine, cholera epidemic and genocide in Yemen to help Saudi Arabia
  10. Nearly a devastating war with North Korea
  11. Intensified existing wars after promising to get out
  12. Still no infrastructure spending that could be paid from money waster on those wars
  13. Declining wages 
  14. Less decline in unemployment as the previous government
  15. Steady increase on the stock marker for a decade stopped
  16. 83% of the tax cuts going to the 1% rather than to you
  17. Corporations paying less taxes, no loopholes fixed, you pay their share 
  18. Otherwise the stock market (sign of how well the rich are doing) would be even worse
  19. Huge deficits and debt
  20. Obstruction of justice on national TV
  21. Putin's puppy in Helsinki
  22. Systemic corruption
  23. Basically ignoring the opioid epidemic running rampant, especially in Trump districts
  24. More Goldman Sachs employees in the White House than ever before
  25. More indictments, convictions and forced resignations than ever before
  26. Republicans who are unwilling to limit Trump trampling the Constitution
  27. Trump using a telephone that is not secure with Chinese listening #ButHerEmails
  28. An unconstitutional Muslim ban
  29. Ripping children away from their parents
  30. No plan to ever reunite the children with their parents
  31. Attacks on the press and thus Constitution #FirstAmendment 
  32. Rampant right-wing terrorism
  33. 71% of terror victims over the last decade died at the hand of right-wing terrorists
  34. Four attacks of them in the last two weeks
  35. Mr affluenza watches TV all day, clearly hates presidenting and is incompetent
  36. The only part of the job Trump likes is calling for violence at campaign rallies #VeryFinePeople
  37. Abusing presidential power in return for money is not part of the job
I am sure you can get this list to 100.



2 comments:

Andy Mitchell said...

What has alarmed me most is how the UK MSM is reporting this: focusing on the strength of the US economy while ignoring the worrying fact that Trump's tax cuts for the billionaires who own such a disproportionate amount of the country's wealth is bankrupting it.

Victor Venema said...

The owner of Fox "News" also owns a large part of UK media. One way ahead would be to put strict limits on such concentrations of media power and give tax breaks to member-supported media.

The elites in the UK and Europe like such tax cuts. There is only so much difference in tax policies possible. America is dragging the rest of the world down. That is next to climate change a good reason to engage in American politics as outsider.